UPSET SPECIAL:
Miami at North Carolina: Butch Davis gets the first crack at his former team. I’ve said all along the Tar Heels will be a dangerous club in November. I know it’s just the first week of October, but the process seems to be accelerating under the leadership of Davis. The youthful Tar Heels were a goal-line fumble away from potentially plucking a win at Blacksburg, Va., last weekend, falling 17-10 to the highly-ranked Hokies.
Davis is now starting to play some of his talented freshman class, and they’re making an impact.
Three of UNC’s early-season losses were by a combined 12 points, meaning the Heels have been around when it counted. And the Heels have some big-play receivers that will give the Hurricanes all they can handle deep, stretching the defense to allow for some more offensive balance. Sophomore flanker Hakeem Nicks is a rising star and junior Brandon Tate is a threat every time he touches the ball on returns. Tate is due to take one the distance.
Miami’s win over Texas A&M looked impressive on the surface, then the Canes followed it up with a 10-point home win against Duke. I know the Blue Devils have improved, but Miami managed just 24 points on offense, a similar effort they saw in week No. 3 with a 23-9 win over Florida International.
North Carolina’s defense was somewhat porous against East Carolina, Virginia and South Florida – three pretty fair teams – before buckling down last Saturday, allowing the Hokies just 241 total yards. If the Heels can throw up a similar performance Saturday in Chapel Hill, the Canes could be facing a tough test in the fourth quarter.
And remember, kicker Conner Barth beat the Canes on a last-second kick in 2004, helping save John Bunting’s job at the time while casting doubt on Larry Coker’s long-term future with the Canes.
Miami has also lost its last four road games dating to last season.
My upset special prediction: North Carolina 23, Miami 20.
BLOWOUT SPECIAL:
N.C. State at Florida State: Former N.C. State coach Chuck Amato said all the right things this week leading up to a match-up with his former team, but he secretly wants to lay a hurt’n on the Wolfpack. I believe it will happen.
The Seminoles finally found enough guts to play Xavier Lee and he produced under some big-time lights last weekend against Alabama in Jacksonville. N.C. State hasn’t performed well on defense the last two weeks, giving up 608 yards to Clemson and 498 to a “conservative” Louisville team in blowout losses. And that was against a pair of drop-back pocket passes in Harper and Brohm. No telling what the scrambling ability of Lee will do to a slow Wolfpack defense.
The Seminoles would also like to warm up for a short turnaround game at Wake Forest next Thursday night, a team that thumped them 30-0 a season ago.
N.C. State has been a turnover machine the first five weeks en route to a 1-4 record, coughing the ball up a whopping 18 times. Daniel Evans returns at QB because of an injury to Harrison Beck. It doesn’t matter who is under center for N.C. State, that position is the least problematic on a team stacked with problems.
My blowout special prediction: Florida State 37, N.C. State 7.