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Location: BlogsCarl Danbury    
Posted by: Carl Danbury 11/16/2007 2:24 PM


Every time you think a college football team “has turned the corner” and begins to look invincible something happens to thwart that line of thinking. Such was the case Thursday night when Oregon’s quarterback and Heisman Trophy candidate injured his left knee while making a cut in the first quarter. He didn’t return and the extent of the injury isn't immediately known. Oregon coach Mike Bellotti said after the game that he thinks Dixon is done for the year. The Ducks, ranked second in the BCS, lost to Arizona 34-24 and saw their national championship hopes vanish into the thin Tuscon air.

Georgia is in a similar situation. No, they won't play for the BCS title, but all the Dawgs have to do is beat Kentucky and hope that Vandy or Kentucky knocks off the Vols to play LSU for the SEC Championship. Everyone is totally enamored with UGA’s Knowshon Moreno and the team’s ability to win crucial games (Alabama, Florida, Auburn to name a few). Coach Mark Richt has pushed all of the right emotional buttons over the course of the past month as the Dawgs have won four straight SEC games after starting the conference schedule with a 2-2 mark. The Dawgs enter this weekend’s game with revenge, an opportunity to play for the SEC Championship and a potential BCS bowl game berth (thanks Arizona!) squarely in focus.

They face a Kentucky team Saturday that began the season with five straight wins and are the only team to beat LSU this season. But, the ‘Cats lost two straight to Florida and Miss. State at home to close out October and opponents have shredded UK’s defense for nearly 200 yards per game on the ground. Moreno has rushed for 642 yards (5.9 yards per carry) and eight touchdowns in UGA’s four straight wins, an ominous sign for the Wildcats defense. And, Georgia has posted three straight games with 40 points or more, which would seem to indicate that in order for the Wildcats to win they must do so in a high-scoring shootout.

Georgia must find a way to combat Andre Woodson and the Kentucky offense. The Dawgs “held” Florida to 30 points in its win in Jacksonville, and allowing just 30 points to UK might be enough for another Dawgs’ victory. Running back Rafael Little, who missed much of the Vanderbilt game due to a back injury, might return for the ‘Cats against Georgia. If he is unable to go the second-best freshman running back in the SEC, Derrick Locke, is more than capable of causing problems for the Dawgs’ defense. Woodson has numerous weapons at receiver, including Keenan Burton, Dicky Lyons Jr., Jacob Tamme, DeMoreo Ford and Steve Johnson, and Locke and Little are excellent receivers out of the backfield.

Interestingly, Kentucky’s roster is laden with former prep stars from the Peach State. The Cats’ victory over the Dawgs last season was a very meaningful victory for the program, as that win proved to the players themselves that they could compete at the SEC level. Including that win, the Wildcats are 5-5 since in SEC play. A road win at Georgia would give UK three SEC road wins in a season for the first time since 1977. On offense, center Eric Scott hails from Woodstock, DeMoreo Ford is from LaGrange and Little is from Anderson, S.C., just north of the Georgia state line. On defense, Travis Day (Columbus), Sam Maxwell (Hartwell), Roger Williams (Rockmart) and the Cats three defensive leaders Braxton Kelly (LaGrange), Wesley Woodyard (LaGrange) and Trevard Lindley (Hiram) all grew up with dreams of playing for the Dawgs, which will provide added incentive for a team that is 0-for-14 at Sanford Stadium since shutting out the Bulldogs between the hedges in 1977.

The Bulldogs will get UK’s best effort on Saturday and I’m simply not certain that Richt can get his team to maintain its high level of play for the fifth consecutive week. The last time Georgia won five straight games heading into its in-state battle against Georgia Tech (Nov. 24) was in 1982, Herschel Walker’s final season in Athens.

This could be one of the greatest games in this series and there have been plenty of close calls. And, this could be Kentucky quarterback Woodson’s defining victory in what has been a fabulous career. Woodson has completed 62 percent of his attempts for an average of 12.16 yards per completion since his sophomore season. In his last 1,037 pass attempts he has been intercepted just 20 times, or once every 52 times he throws the ball. He has thrown for 66 touchdowns in that span, one in every 15.7 attempts. If Woodson and the offense is able to provide ample rest for Kentucky’s defense by sustaining drives for much of the game (27 minutes of possession should do it), I think the Cats will come away with a nail-biting win. But, if Moreno and Thomas Brown have their way with Kentucky’s defense, than it could be another long day in Athens for the visitors. I’ll take the former scenario, but it comes with a caveat: I picked Auburn last week!

Kentucky 34, Georgia 31

Phil Fulmer’s Tennessee team harbors no thoughts of a national championship either, but can win the SEC Eastern Division title and a berth opposite LSU in the SEC Championship Game Dec. 1 at the Georgia Dome with wins over Vanderbilt and Kentucky in their final two regular season contests. After being blown out in the season opener in Berkeley by Cal, getting shellacked at the hands of Tim Tebow and the Florida Gators in Gainesville and then taking a severe beating in Tuscaloosa on the third Saturday in October, the Vols looked nothing like a champion. However, wins over Georgia, South Carolina, Arkansas and surprising Miss. State put the Vols squarely in the Eastern Division hunt. They control their own fate and will make the trip to Atlanta by winning out.

In their path Saturday stands Vanderbilt (5-5), a team that is hoping for one more win to become bowl eligible (its first since 1982), and a team that has beaten Tennessee just twice in the past 25 seasons in 1982 and in 2005. But, Vandy is the only SEC team to beat Tennessee at home in November since 1985. If the Vols can get by Vandy, they face Rich Brooks’ Kentucky team, a team that also has beaten Tennessee just twice in the past 26 years, but not once since 1984. Based upon history, Georgia has little hope of getting any help from the ‘Dores and ‘Cats to take over first place in the East.

In the last 12 meetings in Knoxville, the Vols have beaten Vandy 11 times by an average margin of 22 points per game. On five previous occasions in the past 25 years, Vandy has entered the annual in-state matchup with a 5-5 record. The Commodores are 0-5 against the Vols in those instances and Bobby Johnson’s team has one road victory this year at South Carolina. Vandy does have at least three future NFL stars on its current roster: junior wide receiver Earl Bennett, senior linebacker Jonathan Goff and sophomore cornerback D.J. Moore and the win in Knoxville two years ago should give the ‘Dores confidence. In addition, Vanderbilt’s defense is one of the most difficult to prepare for, according the Kentucky’s offensive coordinator Joker Phillips.

“You have to pay more attention to their blitzes more than just any one person. I think this [Vanderbilt’s] staff does as good a job as any in this conference. They do a good job of disguising their blitzes, that’s what gives you a hard time. We had a hard time in the first half,” Phillips said.

Kentucky adjusted in the second half by going to a no huddle, two-minute mode attack in the second half.

“They are a very physical, well-coached football team,” Kentucky head coach Rich Brooks said after last week’s win. “Vanderbilt does as good a job disguising what they do [on defense] than anybody we have seen all year.”

Tennessee allowed just one first down in the first half of last week’s romp over Arkansas. The Hogs failed to convert on all of five of their third-down opportunities in the first half and gained just 49 yards in the first 30 minutes. The Vols defense also had three interceptions against Arkansas.

Not surprisingly, if Tennessee gets off to a good start against Vandy they should be able to dictate tempo. The Vols are 7-0 this year when leading at halftime, but 0-3 when trailing after 30 minutes. Tennessee has played its best games at home and should be able to come away with a hard-earned victory against the scrappy, well-coached but still outmanned Commodores.

Tennessee understands what is at stake Saturday, and that could be to its detriment. Oregon knew it and lost. Ohio State knew it and lost. Michigan knew it and lost. Connecticut, Boston College and Arizona State all have suffered similar fates during the past few weeks.

Rocky Top might be in full swing on Saturday but the party won’t begin until after Vandy has shown itself to be a very formidable foe.

Tennessee 23, Vanderbilt 17

Tough for Miss. State to rebound from another huge win over Alabama?
Miss. State 20, Arkansas 19

Upset-minded Rebels push LSU to the brink?
LSU 37, Ole Miss 22

Ho-Hum even with Harvin!
Florida 41, Florida Atlantic 10

No one is picking them, so I will:
Boston College 24, Clemson 20
N.C. State 27, Wake Forest 23


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