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Location: Blogs Carl Danbury |
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| Posted by: Carl Danbury |
11/2/2007 10:51 AM |
The biggest game on this weekend’s schedule of college football games isn’t Arizona State vs. Oregon, LSU vs. Alabama or Wisconsin vs. Ohio State. While those three are going to be watched with great interest, my eyes will be fixed on Navy’s first win over Notre Dame since 1963. I know you’re saying to yourself, “What’s the big deal’? Nobody cares about that game because the Fighting Irish are 1-7 while the Mids are 4-4 and have allowed 148 points in their last three games to Pitt, Wake Forest and Delaware. Consider that Navy hasn’t forced a Notre Dame punt since the fourth quarter of the 2004 game, that the Irish are 70-9-1 overall and 26-3 at Notre Dame Stadium and you might begin to understand the significance of a Navy win over Notre Dame.
Take a look at some of the trends for Navy:
• The Mids are 21-0 when holding opponents to less than 20 points and Notre Dame’s offense is putrid
• The Mids are 0-40 when giving up 300 yards rushing but 32-9 when rushing for more than 300 yards themselves
• Notre Dame is one of eight opponents who will have had a week off prior to playing Navy this season
• When Navy wins the turnover battle they are 4-0, but 0-3 when losing the turnover battle
• Navy has scored on 23 of its last 32 possessions to open the second half, including 19 touchdowns
• Navy has a 22-2 record when scoring first
• Navy is 13-4 coming off a loss in its previous game
Saturday’s game in South Bend will be a truly memorable game in U.S. Naval Academy history. The Mids dropped a 59-52 decision to Delaware last week clearly focusing upon the Notre Dame game, and Paul Johnson will get a supreme effort from his Midshipmen in Navy’s first win over the Irish since Roger Staubach left the Academy.
Anchors Aweigh My Boys: Navy 33, Notre Dame 24
Wake Forest visits Charlottesville to face the 7-2 Virginia Cavaliers in a vital game for both teams. Wake enters the fray with six straight wins, while UVA is licking its wounds after a loss at N.C. State. The teams haven’t met since Sept. 27, 2003, a victory for the Wahoos, but Virginia has won 9-of-10 against the Demon Deacons and I think that trend will continue this weekend. UVA’s defense is a little stronger than Wake’s and the Cavaliers’ defensive stats at home show that they allow 50 fewer total yards per game on their home turf than games on the road. I totally respect what Jim Grobe and his team have done after a tough start to the year, and Riley Skinner is impeccable completing 72.7 percent of his passes this season. However, Al Groh’s squad has won a lot of close games this season and will win another close one at home Saturday.
WAHOO: Virginia 33, Wake Forest 31
In the battle of LSU’s last two head football coaches, the begrudgingly accepted (Les Miles) faces the mystifyingly departed (Nick Saban) in a game that Tigers’ fans have been pointing to since the Jan. 3-announcement of Saban’s hiring at Alabama. On the field, LSU has won four straight against Alabama and 6-of-7 against the Crimson Tide, and the Bayou Bengals also have won four of the past five played in Tuscaloosa. LSU clearly has the better defensive stats and they have been extremely effective stopping the run in 2007 allowing 71.6 yards per game, while Alabama is allowing 60 more yards per game on the ground. Alabama’s quarterback John Parker Wilson has found his rhythm in the passing game during the Tide’s last three games, but that was against Houston, Ole Miss and Tennessee, and Bama now faces the 4th-ranked passing defense in the nation.
In order for the Crimson Tide to win this game, OC Major Applewhite must utilize quick passes and find a way to get the ball in Terry Grant’s hands in space, which won’t be an easy task Saturday. On the other side of the ball, I expect Gary Crowton to rely upon running backs Charles Scott, Jacob Hester and Keiland Williams in attempt to establish the Tigers’ rushing attack and try to take pressure off quarterback Matt Flynn, who will see nearly all of the snaps since option threat Ryan Perrilloux has been suspended for the game. Early this week, Miles said that he expects wide receiver Early Doucet to be the healthiest he has been all year, and that certainly will help LSU’s offense. On defense, defensive tackle Glenn Dorsey, who missed some time in the Auburn game due to a knee injury, is expected to play. The unknown is how much he will be able to play.
With both teams coming off an open date, there is no decided advantage. However, Saban is 7-3 coming off more than one week to prepare (at LSU) and Miles is 2-1 in those situations since arriving in Baton Rouge. This is an extremely tough call, but I believe LSU’s ability to win close games and the fact their defense can shut down opponents plays into the Tigers’ favor in this one. A win Saturday in Tuscaloosa puts the Tigers in the driver’s seat in the SEC West race with conference games at Ole Miss and against Arkansas remaining. A win by Alabama eliminates any hope of a BCS Championship game berth for LSU and the SEC.
Tiger Bait: LSU 27, Alabama 20
Jamie and I will be in Fayetteville for the Arkansas-South Carolina game Saturday night, which will be our first trip to Northwest Arkansas. There are two things we know about this game, USC can’t stop the run and Arkansas can’t pass, so we’ll expect to see plenty of Felix Jones, Darren McFadden and Peyton Hillis Saturday night. South Carolina fought back valiantly last week after falling behind 21-0 at Tennessee and losing that game in the manner in which they did, it seems unlikely the ‘Cocks can recover. Spurrier’s record is just 6-5 at Carolina after a loss and the Hogs have already lost twice at home this season. I think we’ll see a huge effort by the Razorbacks and wouldn’t be surprised to see them win by double digits. Even if they lose, Jamie and I know we'll have a great time at the WebHogs tailgate party. We'll let you know all about our trip in the Holiday issue of SportsUnlimited.
Hogs Wild: Arkansas 34, South Carolina 19
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Upset of the Half-Century: Navy Will Beat Notre Dame and More Outrageousness! |
By Broomer on
11/2/2007 1:57 PM |
| The Tide gets blown out unless D.J. Hall scores 3 times. |
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Re: Upset of the Half-Century: Navy Will Beat Notre Dame and More Outrageousness! |
By Tom on
11/2/2007 8:35 PM |
| blasphemy! The Irish have to win their 2nd, no? |
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Re: Upset of the Half-Century: Navy Will Beat Notre Dame and More Outrageousness! |
By Carl Danbury on
11/4/2007 1:47 AM |
| Pretty good day! Just got back from seeing Darren McFadden rip the Gamecocks defense for 323 yards on 35 carries. I still think Felix Jones will be a better NFL back. If you've not been to a game in Fayetteville and your team plays out here next year -- plan on it. Nice folks, a great stadium and a fabulous little town to visit. |
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