ACC UPSET OF THE WEEK
N.C. State (2-6, 0-4) at Duke (4-4, 1-3)
Wallace Wade Stadium, Durham, N.C. 3:30 p.m., ESPN 360
Posted by David Droschak (11-06-08)
One of the byproducts of Atlantic Coast Conference expansion four seasons ago was an unbalanced football schedule in which certain teams had to put long-standing rivalries on hold. One those the most glaring instances has been the Duke-N.C. State game, which began in 1924 and was played every season – except 1944 – until 2003.
Wolfpack fans moaned and groaned the last four seasons about not getting a crack at the ACC doormat while arch-rival North Carolina, which plays in the Coastal Division with Duke, could.
Be careful what you wish for Pack faithful.
When the ACC schedule came out in 2008, there was Duke on the slate to start a three-game mid-November run in which the Wolfpack plays the Blue Devils, Demon Deacons and Tar Heels in succession.
However, Duke is no longer the team everyone scoffs at, a team Triangle fans joked about for years as a potential good fit for the Southern Conference, not a BCS conference.
David Cutcliffe has restored some life to a dying program, getting Duke to 4-4 and in bowl contention as the trees begin to turn bright orange, yellow, and yes, Wolfpack red.
Meanwhile, the Wolfpack has the worst record in the ACC at 2-6 as second-year coach Tom O’Brien searches for a way to get his injury-plagued team back on track for a stretch run.
Duke has been challenged this season. In fact, N.C. State is the first club the Blue Devils will face with a losing record. Could Duke underestimate the Pack? In addition, while Cutcliffe snuffed out any rumors of him returning to coach Tennessee early in the week, do his players believe him and could this be a distraction come Saturday afternoon? Can the Devils rebound from a tough overtime loss at Wake Forest?
There is one other item to consider here 25 miles down the road in Raleigh. After N.C. State’s open week a season ago, O’Brien regrouped the troops and went on a four-game winning streak. After losing its last three games by just a combined 19 points, and then getting an off week to recoup, is the Wolfpack ready to make another surge?
The key to N.C. State’s recent good play has been the health and maturity of freshman quarterback Russell Wilson, who suffered a concussion in the season-opener at South Carolina and then got dinged a few weeks later. Wilson is elusive and is coming on in the passing game. His stats don’t lie: 50 of 76 for 584 yards and no interceptions the last three games for a Tom Brady-like 152.5 passer rating.
Neither team can run the ball effectively (Duke is 100th in the nation, N.C. State 109th), so this outcome will likely come down to the quarterbacks and special teams, and N.C. State has some dynamite return men.
If Duke dreams of heading to the postseason for the first time since 1994, this is almost a must-win, considering the Blue Devils have road games left at Clemson and Virginia Tech, and host North Carolina.
Will the Blue Devils press in this one?
There have been some wild and close games in this series in which N.C. State has won the last 10, including in 2003 when Philip Rivers was under center for the Wolfpack. Eleven of the last 17 have been decided by eight points or less, and of that total, nine were decided by four points or less.
If N.C. State can keep its defense off the field and stays fresh (allowed an ACC-worse 74 fourth-quarter points) O’Brien will find a way to start another late-season streak.
SU Prediction: N.C. State 41, Duke 38