US Open Tennis: A Different Kind of Madness
By Jamie Lay (Posted 8-26-08)
Picking a winner of the US Open isn’t easy. Multiply the NCAA Tournament draw by two and you have the number of players in the Open. That’s 128 possible winners, half of which are gone after the first three days. Of the remaining half, a quarter are qualifiers. To sift through the madness, I focused my draw on seven players I think have the best chance of winning the tournament. Then I worked backwards through the draw to see who might be able stop them.
Top Half of the Draw
No. 1 Rafael Nadal
Rafael Nadal lives on the island of Majorca – about the size of West Virginia – off the coast of Spain in the Mediterranean Sea. There, he learned and honed his craft before setting out to conquer the world. He is now the No. 1-ranked player and has practically owned former No. 1 Roger Federer all year. The last time Federer defeated Nadal – they’ve played four times this year – was a year ago at the Tennis Masters Cup in China. In 2006, they faced each other twice on hard courts and split the series. It’s surprising but Nadal has a 12-6 advantage in the rivalry, mainly due to the fact that Federer hasn’t been able to beat him on clay.
Following the glorious Wimbledon final, everyone – serious and casual fans alike – is anticipating another memorable meeting between Federer and Nadal. It’s difficult to see anyone stopping him, but Nadal’s first round match with German Bjorn Phau reminded us that nothing in the US Open is easy.
Nadal’s most formidable opponent is James Blake, who he may face in the quarterfinals. I wrote earlier in the week that Blake just doesn’t have a Grand Slam in him, but I always give him a chance in the US Open. He returns to New York, where he grew up and gets a spark you don’t see during the rest of the year. It’s hard to forget his night match with Andre Agassi in 2005. The nearly three-hour five-set match ended close to 2 a.m. Two years ago he lost to Federer in four sets and last year to Tommy Haas in the 4th round. But Blake has to play two difficult matches before he even thinks about playing Nadal. Sebastien Grosjean and Marty Fish in the 3rd round and Frenchmen Paul-Henri Mathieu and Gael Monfils in the 4th round. The No. 4 ranked player in the world Argentine David Nalbandian is another player who might fight his way into the 4th round. Nalbandian has beaten Nadal both times they’ve played on hard courts, straight set victories in Paris and Madrid last year. Nadal has improved dramatically on hard courts and is ready to win his first US Open.
No. 17 Juan Martin Del Potro
The Argentinean has quietly won his last four tournaments, two on clay and two on hard courts. He brings much momentum into the US Open. Starting the year ranked No. 44 he jumped to No. 17. At the Legg Mason Tennis Classic in early August he defeated John Isner, Hass and Serbian Viktor Troicki to win the title. A week earlier in Los Angeles he upset Andy Roddick for another championship. At the US Open last year, the 22-year old lost to Djokovic in the 3rd round but he showed promise. Disappointingly, he is 0-3 against Nadal having lost to him at Queen’s Club, Roland Garros and ATP Master Series Miami last year. Before the quarterfinals, Del Potro’s must beat 20-year old Japanese sensation Kei Nishikori, Frenchman Gilles Simon and Swiss Stanislas Wawrinka. There is always Great Britain’s Andy Murray.
No. 6 Andy Murray
Murray is playing superbly since his exit at Wimbledon. He won the ATP Masters Series Cincinnati two weeks ago upsetting Djokovic in the finals, his second win over the lad in two weeks. He also beat him at the ATP Masters Series Canada and has proven to be a solid player on hard courts. Nadal defeated Murray three times this year and two times the previous year. Murray is another player on the outside watching possibly the greatest two players in the history of tennis compete for No.1.
Bottom Half of the Draw
No. 8 Andy Roddick
The 2003 winner of the US Open has the toughest draw of any seeded player. In the first round he faces veteran Frenchman Fabrice Santoro who in 16 appearances at the US Open has reached the third round four times (1990, 1998, 1999, 2004). If Roddick defeats Santoro, he’ll probably meet Ernest Gulbris who made the 4th round last year. Then he’ll likely play another former 4th round player, Korean Hyung-Talk Lee. Roddick hasn’t fared well in the Grand Slams this season, but, if he survives, he’ll likely play Australian Open winner Novak Djokovic or Spaniard Tommy Robredo in the 4th round. Sorry, Andy, it’s probably not your year. Yet again, you got engaged to swimsuit model Brooklyn Decker this year. Not bad.
No. 3 Novak Djokovic
The Australian Open winner is one of the favorites to make the semifinals. His draw is relatively easy until he meets American Robby Ginepri, who made the final four in 2005. Ginepri hasn’t repeated this performance and is 0-4 against Djokovic. Two weeks ago Djokovic defeated Ginepri 6-4, 6-4 at the Olympics. If Djokovic wins, he’ll probably face Spaniard Tommy Robredo, who is 1-3 against Djokovic, though, they haven’t played this year. (Robredo reached the 4th round of the US Open in 2001, 2004, 2005 and 2006.) Djokovic must also deal with former US Open champ Marat Safin. Safin (my sleeper pick), who reached the semifinals of Wimbledon by upsetting Djokovic in the 2nd round, is 2-0 against the No. 3 ranked player in the world. Also, don’t forget earlier in the season Roddick defeated Djokovic 7-6, 6-3 in Dubai.
No. 5 Nikolay Davydenko
Winner of three ATP titles this year, Davydenko has had a solid season. He reached the US Open semifinal last year’s but lost to the eventual champion Roger Federer. Remarkably, (or rather unremarkably) he is 0-12 against Federer. (He and Federer have played only once this year. Davydenko retired with an injury in the second set.) If he makes the quarterfinal of the Open, he’ll face Federer. I wouldn’t give him very good odds.
No. 2 Roger Federer
Looking over Roger Federer’s three performances in August, I couldn’t believe my eyes. I hadn’t seen Federer play since his five-hour match with Nadal at Wimbledon. I had no idea he had lost to Frenchman Gillie Simon in the 2nd round at the ATP Masters Canada and Ivo Karlovic in the 3rd round of the ATP Masters Series Cincinnati. I knew about his defeat in the Olympics to James Blake, but I was shocked to see how far Federer had fallen. Still, this is the winner of the last four US Opens. When you take a step back from the madness for a minute, you say this is Roger Federer. That said, he’s still susceptible to upset before the semifinals.
Radek Stepanek is one of the few players other than Nadal to have beaten Federer more than once. Both victories occurred on clay, Federer’s least favorite surface, but it is still significant considering Federer may face Stepanek in the 3rd round. Tommy Haas is another quality player on Federer’s side of the draw who may give him trouble. Federer has dominated Haas in previous years, holding an 8-2 advantage over the German. It is difficult to imagine Federer losing a match in the US Open, but it appears likely to happen this year.
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