2008-09 Southeast Division Forecast
Take Your Pick In A Wide Open Race
By David Droschak (Posted 10-09-08)
With Tampa Bay, Carolina, Atlanta and Washington each winning the division over the last four seasons, the Southeast crown appears as wide open as ever in 2008-09. Some of the clubs have had major overhauls, and there are three new head coaches, including Tampa Bay’s new boss, who hasn’t been behind the bench in a decade. So, there are plenty of unknowns. One thing is clear -- the Southeast Division has some of the NHL’s top young talent in Alexander Ovechkin, Eric Staal, Vincent Lacavalier and Ilya Kolvachuk. The following are my predictions for the order of finish.
1. Washington: Pound-for-pound, dollar-for-dollar (or should I say millions-for-millions) Alexander Ovechkin is the NHL’s best and most hair-raising player. So, his presence already gives the Caps an edge in the division. He’s joined up front by fellow Russian marksman Alexander Semin, all-rookie selection and assist machine Nicklas Backstrom and 38-year-old Sergei Fedorov. The Caps even won the division in 2008 despite Michael Nylander missing the final 38 games after undergoing rotator cuff surgery. He’s back and ready to roll. Washington GM George McPhee has built this club through the draft and made very few roster changes after last season, and with good reason. The Caps have great size, can score, will mix it up with Donald Brashear as its enforcer and have a veteran defenseman like Tom Poti to anchor the blue-liners. McPhee did go out and get himself a new goalie in Jose Theodore, who has a modest career mark of 183-197, but a goals-against-average of 2.65. If the 2002 NHL MVP can come anywhere close to that number and the Caps improve their penalty killing unit, the Presidents’ Trophy could be within reach. SU Prediction: 106 points, Division Title.
2. Carolina: The Canes were in first place for the majority of the regular season before allowing the Caps to overtake them on the final day. The club was beset by injuries, losing a franchise-record 337 man-games. And Justin Williams and Scott Walker are already on the shelf for at least two months to start the new campaign. Carolina, desperate for some help on the point of the power play, added Joe Corvo late last season from Ottawa and dealt crowd favorite Erik Cole to Edmonton to acquire Joni Pitkanen this summer. Still, this defense will have to lock down more in front of Cam Ward since Glen Wesley and Bret Hedican (a combined 2,445 NHL games and 36 seasons) have retired. Eric Staal signed a long-term deal before the season and was the division’s best player over the final month after captain Rod Brind’Amour went down with a knee injury. The Canes need career years from players like Matt Cullen, Patrick Eaves and Tim Gleason in order to overtake the Caps. The team’s last two first-round draft picks – Brandon Sutter and Zach Boychuk – made the 23-man roster out of camp. SU Prediction: 97 points and a playoff spot.
3. Tampa Bay: Barry Melrose moves from behind the camera to behind the bench for the first time since his L.A. Kings days, taking over a team that recorded an NHL-worst 31 wins in 2008. The Lightning’s major roster overhaul in the last nine months will either work or fall flat. Some of the main components are still in place with Vincent Lacavalier, Martin St. Louis and Vaclav Prospal, but expecting scoring from the likes of 42-year-old Gary Roberts and 40-year-old Mark Recchi may be asking a bit much, along with Radim Vrbata, who posted career bests in goals (27) and points (56) for Phoenix last season. Signing former Pittsburgh Penguin mainstay Ryan Malone was a major plus, and 18-year-old rookie Steven Stamkos, the first pick in the 2008 draft, will be interesting to watch. However, will the Lightning be able to keep the puck out of its own net? Mike Smith, with just 58 NHL games under his belt, must now run or sink with the starting job as backup Olaf Kolzig is in the twilight of his stellar career. Is this a playoff team? Probably not enough defense to close out the deal. SU Prediction: 84 points.
4. Atlanta: Marion Hossa, Bobby Holik and Mark Recchi are gone, meaning the Thrashers are in a major rebuilding mode. Say what you want about Hossa, but he had 248 points in 222 games while in Atlanta before being traded for Pittsburgh’s Cup run. The major question for Atlanta is who will help Kolvachuk, who had 52 goals last season, put the puck in the net. No other player remaining scored more than 17. Ouch! Sure, the recent acquisition of 39-year-old defenseman Mathieu Schneider will help, but this is a young blue line that will feature second-year player Tobias Enstrom and rookie Zach Bogosian, the third overall pick in the 2008 draft. And there’s not much physical size. What’s even more problematic is that six of seven defensemen shoot left-handed. I don’t quite see Colby Armstrong and Erik Christensen picking up the scoring slack vacated by Hossa. New coach John Anderson is a career minor league mentor, meaning he’ll have to get up to NHL speed fast. For Atlanta to make any sort of playoff push, goalie Kari Lehtonen will have to have a career year. Even then, it would be a long shot. SU Prediction: 79 points.
5. Florida: The only franchise not to win the Southeast Division in the last four seasons, and it won’t happen in 2008-09. New coach Peter DeBoer won 539 career games in the Ontario Hockey League, but he’ll begin his NHL coaching career with a major challenge. Few argue the Panthers have the best defense in the division, and have added Toronto ironman Bryan McCabe and Nick Boynton to an already tough group, but did Florida make enough offseason noise up front? Cory Stillman was a nice addition, but he’s not a goal scorer. And nine of the club’s 15 forwards are 25 years old or younger. Tomas Vokoun is a good goalie, but he can’t face another NHL-high 2,213 shots if Florida is to make a run. The Panthers appear to be building something nice here, but it make take a few years to catch up with the likes of Washington and Carolina. “These guys are sick and tired of not playing meaningful games late in the season,” DeBoer said. SU Prediction: 77 points.
Carl Danbury's Picks
1. Washington
No team ever repeats, until this year. Head-and-shoulders above the rest if Ovie stays healthy. Might clinch the division by March 1.
2. Carolina
Rutherford is actually so much better than the rest of the GMs in the division (besides McPhee) that he has begun his own youth movement and no one recognizes it. Better than the rest. Staal could use some help.
3. Florida
Jacques Martin was a mediocre coach and we're not sure about his GM abilities either. We do know he has enough defense to stay in most games, but again this year we ask: who's going to score for you, Jacques?
4. Tampa Bay
Already 0-2 by virtue of their trip to Prague, the wheeling-and-dealing Lightning will have trouble on the ice and in the room with cohesiveness despite the presence of Melrose. Buying a playoff berth never works.
5. Atlanta
Year Nine of GM Waddell's five-year plan. We thought there was a bona fide youth movement, then he signs a 39-year-old for $5.5 million per for two years. Shrewd? Not likely. Desperate? The Thrashers creed.