Bowl Game Predictions
Games of Dec. 31-Jan. 1
By David Droschak, Carl Danbury and Greg Barckhoff (Posted 12-30-08)
Can Lightning Strike the Same Dome Twice?
LSU Seeks Another Chick-fil-A Bowl Win over Georgia Tech
For only the third time in the past two decades, the Tigers enter a bowl game after losing their final game. Fortunately for head coach Les Miles, his squad returns to Atlanta’s Georgia Dome for the Chick-fil-A Bowl, a stadium that has been good to the Tigers. LSU has won six of seven in the Dome since 1996. Considering LSU lost its last two games, had to come from way behind to beat Troy, and lost to Nick Saban in overtime, motivation, or lack of it, might be a big factor for the Tigers.
It’s not that the Chick-fil-A Bowl isn’t meaningful, but it certainly isn’t as special as the BCS title game the Tigers won last January. It’s not that Georgia Tech and its option offense isn’t a challenge, but look at LSU’s most recent bowl games: 2002 Sugar Bowl vs. Illinois; 2003 Cotton Bowl vs. Texas; 2004 Sugar Bowl vs. Oklahoma; 2005 Capital One Bowl vs. Iowa; 2005 Chick-fil-A Bowl vs. Miami; 2007 Sugar Bowl vs. Notre Dame and the 2008 BCS Championship vs. Ohio State. Miles has an undefeated bowl record (4-0) at stake, and his team has won 41 games since he arrived at LSU.
“We have to set the tone because this is the last time we get the chance to wear this uniform and that’s inspiration alone,” LSU left guard Herman Johnson said. “I want to go out with a win in a bowl game. It’s that simple. Last year’s game was amazing to finish the season the way we did, but I want to go out in my last game with a win.”
On defense, LSU had similar stats in most categories to that of last year's squad. The Tigers allowed 3.3 yards per rush, 105.7 rushing yards per game and 17 rushing touchdowns. The Tigers allowed 37 more passing yards per game but were actually better in limiting opponents from converting on third down. LSU allowed the opposition to convert on just 32 percent in 2008.
However, LSU forced just 16 turnovers this season, 20 fewer than in 2007, and had 10 fewer sacks (27) than last season.
Little was expected from Paul Johnson’s first team at Georgia Tech. Last summer, the media picked the Yellow Jackets to finish fourth in the Coastal Division and many scoffed at Johnson’s intentions of fully utilizing his triple-option Flexbone in the upper reaches of the Bowl Championship Subdivision. Sure, you can use it at Navy, but not at The ACC level some opined.
Ahem, but 3,388 rushing yards later allows Johnson to shoot-the-bird to any who said it, and 2,960 of those yards (296 yards per game) were complied against ACC and SEC competition.
Running backs Jonathan Dwyer and Roddy Jones flourished in Johnson’s system as the pair combined for 1,986 rushing yards on 262 carries (7.6 yards per carry) and 16 touchdowns. Dwyer took two to the house from more than 80 yards and Jones had a 62-yard touchdown burst.
Need more affirmation on Johnson’s attack? Tech finished with a 9-3 record by throwing the ball just 140 times for the season, completing just 47 percent of its attempts, and won three times when trailing in the second half on the road at BC, Clemson and Georgia.
Tech’s defense held up its end of the bargain too, forcing 29 turnovers and sacking opposing quarterbacks 32 times. The Jackets allowed just less than 19 points and 312.7 total yards per contest. The Tech stop unit must try to contain LSU’s power back Charles Scott, who gained 1,109 yards on 202 carries and scored 15 touchdowns.
Tech has lost three straight bowl games. This is Johnson’s sixth consecutive season in leading his team to a bowl. He won twice at Navy.
Johnson and Tech have done more than they could have hoped for this season, while LSU underachieved in both the fans’ and players’ minds. The scenario is eerily similar to the team’s last meeting in Atlanta, Dec. 29, 2000. LSU entered the game with seven wins, just like this year and had lost a close game to Arkansas in the regular season finale in Little Rock. Georgia Tech entered the game with nine wins and had beaten Georgia in Athens in its last game. Tech was ranked 15th in the Coaches poll and 17th in the AP, very similar to this season, and was installed as a four-point favorite, the same as this year.
LSU trailed 14-3 at halftime that year when Rohan Davey came off the bench to spark the Tigers’ comeback with 19 fourth-quarter points en route to a 28-14 victory.
LSU 19, Georgia Tech 17
Boston College Seeks Ninth Straight Bowl Win
Eagles face Hometown Vanderbilt in the Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowl
Boston College has been one of the most successful programs in the nation during the past decade. In the past 10 seasons, the Eagles have won 88 games, and during the past five seasons, BC has won 48. The private Jesuit-run institution of approximately 9,000 undergraduates has played in the last two ACC championship games only to lose both to Virginia Tech after beating the Hokies in the regular season in 2007 and 2008.
BC has played on New Years Day five times in its history, but despite its record, Boston College hasn’t participated in a New Years Day bowl game since 1994 when the Eagles beat Virginia in the Carquest Bowl (played in Dolphin Stadium before it moved to Orlando in 2001, now the Champs Sports Bowl). Fan support, or at least the perceived lack of it, is a negative and officials from bowls that depend upon ticket sales (not all do) are reluctant to invite BC because of its inability to sell tickets.
It seems that the Eagles have met their match in the Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowl. Vanderbilt hasn’t been bowling since 1982, and with an undergraduate population of just 6,700, its box-office ability isn’t too alluring either, even though the game will be played in its hometown. Losers of six of its last seven games, the Commodores stagger into LP Field having scored just 100 points in those seven games. Vanderbilt lost to both Duke and Wake Forest from the ACC this year.
Boston College seems to have a match-up advantage on several fronts against Vanderbilt. The Eagles defend the run extremely well (Ranked No. 7 in the nation) and allowed just 273.4 total yards per game. The Eagles should be able to churn out some yards on the ground offensively as well, with freshmen Montel Harris and Josh Haden getting the majority of the carries. Redshirt freshman Dominque Davis replaced starter Chris Crane at quarterback with three games left in the season and got some much-needed playing time. Crane suffered a broken collarbone and likely will not play in the bowl game.
Vanderbilt began the season with five straight wins, including three over bowl-bound South Carolina, Rice and Ole Miss. After beating Auburn Oct. 4, the Commodores lost a close one at Miss. State, hung tough in a loss at Georgia, lost to Duke then got roughed up by Florida. In the four losses, they averaged just 226 yards of total offense.
After beating Kentucky, 31-24, the offense reverted to ineptness scoring just 20 points in the last two games. Both Chris Nickson and MacKenzi Adams have been inconsistent at quarterback (completion rate is less than 50 percent), and Vandy’s leading rusher, Jared Hawkins, amassed just 580 net rushing yards for the season. The ‘Dores leading receiver, Sean Walker, averaged fewer than three catches and just 37.7 yards per game.
Vandy’s defensive scheme is so strong, even with those deplorable offensive numbers, that it enables the Commodores to stay in games. Vanderbilt allowed opponents to score a touchdown on just 20-of-40 attempts inside the red zone.
Statistically, it appears this match-up will be a defensive struggle but Boston College’s post-season experience should pay dividends in a close game. Since Jeff Jagodzinski took over for Tom O’Brien last season, the Eagles have won road games at Florida State, Wake Forest, N.C. State, Clemson, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech and Notre Dame, while compiling a 7-2 record as a visitor. Vandy has lost three straight at home, and even though the game will be played in Nashville, the Commodores have no definitive advantage at LP Field.
Boston College 19, Vanderbilt 16
Spurrier Seeks Second Bowl Victory at South Carolina
Gamecocks Face Streaking Iowa Hawkeyes in Outback Bowl
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One of these days, Steve Spurrier will recruit a quarterback that can run his offense with some effectiveness. One of these days, Spurrier will have more than just one capable running back, one capable wide receiver and a tight end to help his offense improve. Unfortunately, he’s likely not to have the same number of quality defensive players he has on today’s roster at the same time the offensive players arrive. And, that is the problem at South Carolina. Yes, there are talented players at many positions, there are just not enough of them to compete for an SEC East badge of honor, not with Florida and Georgia competing for the same recruits.
South Carolina began the season as one of the nation’s best stop units, but fizzled down the stretch. Currently ranked No. 38 against the rush, the ‘Cocks face a formidable task in Tampa facing an Iowa rushing attack that averaged 189 yards per game.
Doak Walker award winner, Shonn Greene, leads the Hawkeye’s attack with 1,729 yards. He rushed for more than 100 yards in each of Iowa’s 12 games this season, including 217 against Wisconsin and 211 against Purdue. Quarterback Ricky Stanzi adds balance to the offense, completing 58.3 percent of his passes for 1,809 yards.
Worse for the Gamecocks is the fact that Iowa allows just 98 rushing yards, the exact amount the Gamecocks average, good for 109th in the nation. Not to be outdone, South Carolina also allowed opponents to sack its quarterbacks 38 times this season. Only five BCS teams allowed more.
The Hawkeyes enter the Outback Bowl with three straight wins, and wins in five-of-six, including an upset of 11-1 Penn State Nov. 8. Iowa has a 3-3 record in bowl games since 2000.
The Gamecocks lost their last two games, at Florida and at Clemson, and won just two of their last five after starting the season with a 5-2 record. This looks like the classic case of two teams going in opposite directions.
Iowa 29, South Carolina 17
Clemson Looks for First Bowl Win Since 2005
Tigers face Nebraska in Minolta Konica Gator Bowl
The promise of an ACC championship and a Top-10 ranking lasted all of 30 minutes into Clemson’s 2008 season. Despite a talented group of offensive players, namely James Davis, Jacoby Ford, Cullen Harper, Aaron Kelly and C.J. Spiller, the Tigers were outscored 20–0 before the end of the first half by Alabama, and the hope of an unblemished season ended before Labor Day.
Along the way, the Tigers lost their head coach Tommy Bowden, their lofty ranking and their mystique. After going 3-4 in its first seven games, Clemson rebounded by winning four of its next five with new coach Dabo Swinney at the helm. A convincing victory over in-state rival South Carolina provided Clemson the opportunity to play in a New Years’ Day bowl game for the first time since 2001. They played in the Gator Bowl that year too.
Clemson’s opponent in Jacksonville, the University of Nebraska, enters the game with three straight wins and wins in five of its last six contests. The Cornhuskers are coached by former LSU defensive coordinator Bo Pelini.
While Nebraska enters the game with an 8-4 overall record, it’s only significant win came against Kansas, another 7-5 team. In fact, the Huskers only other win against a bowl-bound team was against Western Michigan early in the season. On the other hand, Clemson faced eight bowl teams, winning three times.
On paper, both teams are strong against the run. Clemson has a decided advantage defending the pass, which is a very good thing because like many Big 12 schools, Nebraska is prolific in the passing game with 285 yards per game. Nebraska also yields nearly 70 more yards in the air than the Tigers. And when it comes to turnover margin, the Tigers have an advantage over the Huskers.
It is uncertain how Clemson’s older players will react in their final game under Swinney, but the Tigers haven’t won a bowl game since 2005. Nebraska has lost three of its last five bowl appearances and has only played in two during the last four seasons.
Clemson 38, Nebraska 31
Georgia Faces Tough Task in Capital One Bowl
After Losing to Florida and Ga. Tech, Can the Dawgs Rebound Against Michigan State?
New Years Day’s second match-up of the Big Ten vs. SEC squads has a bit more allure than the Outback Bowl, if only to see whether Knowshon Moreno or the Spartans’ Javon Ringer is the best running back on the Citrus Bowl field.
Moreno led the Bulldogs with 1,338 rushing yards, while Ringer amassed 1,590 yards but carried the ball 143 more times during the season than Moreno. Ringer has rushed for 4,351 yards in his career at East Lansing, carrying the ball 823 times in 44 career games.
Ringer also had five more touchdowns than Moreno this season (33 for his career) but the Spartans faced a much weaker schedule, in our opinion, even though both teams faced eight bowl-bound opponents.
UGA signal-caller Matthew Stafford averaged 270 total yards per game and the Dawgs’ passing offense averaged 66 more passing yards per game than the Spartans. Freshman A.J. Green and senior Mohamed Massaquoi led the Georgia’s receiving corps with 112 catches combined.
Neither the Spartans nor the Bulldogs were very efficient creating turnovers, so there is no clear advantage in that statistical category.
In our mind, this game comes down to whether or not Mark’s Richt’s squad is motivated to perform at its highest level. If so, look for the Dawgs’ to completely dominate the scoreboard in this one, particularly if Moreno and Stafford intend to keep their names among those underclassmen eligible for the 2009 NFL Draft.
Georgia 37, Michigan State 17
Hokies Battle New Kids on the Block in FedEx Orange
Cincinnati Makes First BCS Bowl as the Big East’s Rep
In a rare twist of fate, the Cincinnati Bearcats play their first BCS bowl game against the same school it played its first-ever bowl game back in 1947 (Sun Bowl). Virginia Tech, playing in its 16th straight bowl game, comes into the FedEx Orange Bowl off its second straight ACC Championship over Boston College and has three straight wins. Tech is 6-9 in its previous 15 bowl appearances.
The Bearcats, winners of the Big East Conference, come to Miami on a six-game winning streak since losing at Connecticut in October, and are competing in their eighth bowl game since 1997. Brian Kelly (now 21-5 in two seasons at UC) won his first bowl game last year versus Southern Miss in the Papajohns.com Bowl in Birmingham, and Cincy has won its last three bowl games.
Virginia Tech, a team that once again relied upon its running game and defense to win nine games, captured its sixth conference title (three Big East and three ACC) under head coach Frank Beamer, now in his 22nd season in Blacksburg.
The Hokies averaged 168 yards rushing per game, 47 yards more per game than Cincinnati, but the Bearcats compiled 254 passing yards per game to the Hokies’ 128. Both teams are effective against the run, but Tech is much better against the pass.
Cincinnati averaged 27 points per contest despite having to utilize three different starting quarterbacks due to injury. Each signal caller, Tony Pike, Dustin Grutza and Zach Collaros completed better than 61 percent of their passes.
Wide receivers Dominick Goodman (78) and Mardy Gillyard (74) caught nearly as many passes for the Bearcats as the entire Virginia Tech (154) team this season, and Tech played one more game.
In order to win at Dolphin Stadium this year, the Hokies must take the lead and rely upon its defense to be successful. Like most Virginia Tech games, this one could come down to which team wins the turnover battle. Tech is plus-16 on the year, while Cincinnati is minus-5.
The Bearcats’ offense is more efficient in the red zone than the Hokies’. Cincy scored a touchdown 30 of 47 times inside their opponents’ 20-yard-line, while VT converted on just 25 of 54 trips. If Cincinnati takes the lead and maintains it going into the second half, we think it’s going to be a very long night for the Hokies.
Cincinnati 23, Virginia Tech 13
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