The SEC's Top-3 Holds No Surprises
Not much separates Bama, Florida and Georgia Statistically
By Carl Danbury (Posted Oct. 28, 2008)
Is it really that big of a surprise to enter the November schedule with Georgia, Florida and Alabama contending for their division title and a berth in the SEC Championship Game?
According to the media, Georgia and Florida were the pre-season favorites to win the SEC East, while the pundits overlooked Alabama and selected them to finish third. The Crimson Tide got nary a vote to win the SEC West and truthfully, we didn’t expect Saban to turn things around quite so quickly either.
Like the others, we failed to recognize John Parker Wilson’s abilities to lead, to not force passes into tight coverages, to manage the game and to take care of the football. While his yardage statistics don’t mirror those of Florida’s Tim Tebow and Georgia’s Matthew Stafford, Wilson has been the classic definition of “just don’t beat yourself.”
So far, Wilson has been intercepted just three times in 176 pass attempts. He averages 22 pass attempts per game, largely because Alabama has trailed just once all season and the fact the Crimson Tide’s running game has churned for 205 yards per game, more than Florida and Georgia. You might recall last year Wilson averaged more than 35 passing attempts per game and one interception for every 38.5 passing attempts. This year his ratio is one pick for every 59 tosses.
Stafford, on the other hand, averages seven more attempts per game than Wilson and leads the SEC in passing yardage and total offense. He averages 85 more passing yards per game than his ‘Bama counterpart, hooking up frequently with Mohammed Massaquoi and freshman A.J. Green, who leads the SEC in receiving yards per game. Stafford has thrown five interceptions in 229 attempts.
Tebow, the incumbent Heisman Trophy winner, is having another superb year. Tebow (63.4 percent) has a slightly higher completion rate than both Stafford and Wilson, and has been intercepted just twice in 164 pass attempts.
These three quarterbacks are the best in the SEC in terms of game management and taking care of the ball, which has enabled their respective teams to win with regularity.
Run:Pass Ratio
Alabama’s run:pass ratio this season is 64.4:35.6. Last season, that ratio was 51:49, as the Crimson Tide’s running game was much less productive. Florida’s run:pass ratio is 59.9:40.1 this season, while Georgia’s offense has the most balance with a ratio of 53.6:46.4.
Alabama’s improvement in the running game, and its reliance upon it, was expected under Saban, who implemented a similar creed while at LSU from year one to year two.
Opponents outgained the Tide on the ground in 2006 under Shula, 123.1 to 124.6. In its first year under Saban, the Tide outrushed opponents by 25 yards per game. So far through eight games, the disparity is staggering with ‘Bama holding a 143-yard advantage in rushing yards over its opponents. Playing with the lead buoyed that advantage through the first eight games, while in its previous three seasons the Tide often trailed with regularity, particularly against SEC opponents.
Each of the three teams at the top hold a decided advantage in rushing yards. Florida out-rushes its opponents this year, 196.0 to 102.7 yards, while the Bulldogs hold a 172.5 to 76.9 advantage. Bama’s edge is 205.4 to 62.4, and the Tide has allowed just one rushing touchdown all season, a two-yard burst to Georgia’s Knowshon Moreno.
A Matter of Defense
Florida has forced 16 turnovers and is plus-10 in turnover margin. Alabama has a 15-to-11 turnover ratio advantage, while UGA boasts a plus-3 margin forcing 11 opponent miscues. Florida has sacked opposing quarterbacks 16 times in seven games, while Georgia has 15 in eight games. Alabama has 14.
Alabama leads the trio when it comes to the percentage of opponent’s third-down conversions allowed. Opponents have converted just 26.1 percent against the Tide’s defense on third down, while Florida logs in at 32.3 percent. UGA allows opponents to convert at a 34 percent clip.
There are other comparisons that demonstrate just how closely matched these three teams are. ‘Bama can point to the fact that they beat Georgia at Sanford Stadium and beat Ole Miss by four points, while Florida lost to the Rebels by one point. Florida can say they beat LSU by 30 and that Georgia won by just 14 points. Of course, UGA can illustrate that they were coming off a tough stretch of games in late September while ‘Bama was beating up on lesser foes, and that they beat LSU at Tiger Stadium, not at home.
Of course, none of that matters, as the Georgia-Florida debate will be settled Saturday, and the winner is likely to get a shot at Alabama in Atlanta. Unlike last season when one of the best teams (Georgia) in the SEC East didn’t get an opportunity to face the best of the SEC West (LSU) in the title game, no such scenario is likely to occur this season unless another ill-timed upset or two occurs after Nov. 1. Couldn’t happen again, could it?
Upsetting Schedule Alert
Nov. 8 Florida at Vanderbilt
After the fierce battle in Jacksonville, the Gators must travel to Nashville to play Bobby Johnson’s Commodores, a team that also will be coming off an open week after dropping its third straight to Duke.
Nov. 8 Georgia at Kentucky
Rich Brooks’ Wildcats pulled the unthinkable upset in 2006, beating the Dawgs for the first time since 1996.
Nov. 15 Miss. State at Alabama
After returning from feverish Baton Rouge, the Crimson Tide faces the Bulldogs, a team that has won two-in-a-row against their Hwy. 82 rivals and will enter the game off an open week.
Nov. 15 South Carolina at Florida
Spurrier’s Gamecocks would like nothing better than to ruin the Gators’ SEC East hopes in the last SEC game for both teams.
Nov. 15 Georgia at Auburn
Richt’s road warriors will be at it again for the second consecutive Saturday, traveling to Jordan-Hare and its angry mob of fans looking for payback after last year’s rout in Athens.
Nov. 29 Auburn at Alabama
With little left to play for, Tuberville’s Tigers will head to Tuscaloosa with an opportunity to do the unthinkable: win their seventh straight over Alabama. Auburn has never lost in Tuscaloosa.