In the Nick of Time
Alabama (9-0, 5-0) at LSU (6-2, 3-2)
Tiger Stadium • 2:30 CT • CBS
By Carl Danbury (posted 11.6.08)
If LSU’s fans were lining up against the Crimson Tide on Saturday, Alabama might be in for quite a battle. The venom-spewing Tiger faithful has a grudge against the Crimson Tide’s head coach Nick Saban, as he left Red Stick for the Miami Dolphins, then quit the NFL post to take the Alabama job. The LSU faithful considered Saban’s unspeakable career moves akin to preparing File’ Gumbo without roux.
“I know there are going to be a lot of people, who want to talk about this game, and I am going to say it again, this game is not about me,” Saban said. “This is a very good team and this game should be about the players, on both sides. There are a lot of good players out there and two good football teams. We should be able to focus on what’s going to happen on the field.
“We appreciated our time there. It was very special what we were able to do there. We have great memories and great friends, but my heart is with this team. This team has worked hard. We have had a lot of good leadership on this team and these guys deserve the best opportunity they can to be put in the best circumstance and situation to be successful and that is certainly what we’re going to try and focus on.”
Not withstanding the hostile reception Saban will receive when he leads the Crimson Tide out of the tunnel Saturday just prior to kickoff, once the emotional response subsides, the game will likely be decided upon two fronts: which team will run the ball more effectively, and which team will win the turnover battle. It’s not advanced calculus, folks, it’s football, and both teams have the ability to control the tempo of the game and keeping the other team’s offensive unit off the field with their running game. So far this season, that edge resides with the Crimson Tide.
With freshman Mark Ingram, Glen Coffee and Roy Upchurch, Alabama’s running game has been one of the keys to the Tide’s 9-0 start. The Crimson Tide averages 205 yards per game and five yards per carry with a veteran offensive line leading the way for Alabama’s talented group of backs. While LSU’s defense stymied SEC opponents Auburn, Miss. State and South Carolina on the ground, the Tigers allowed 265 yards rushing to Florida and 163 yards to Georgia’s Knowshon Moreno on 21 carries. The Tigers allow 106 rushing yards per game overall, but 136 yards per game to SEC foes.
On the defensive side of the ball, ‘Bama has yielded less than 66 rushing yards per game, benefiting from fast starts and forcing opponents to come from behind. Foes have attempted an average of 35 passes per contest against the Crimson Tide. Certainly, that hasn’t been a recipe for success and won’t be for LSU Saturday either. Bama allows 74.2 yards rushing per game against SEC opponents, but keep in mind that Ole Miss gained 158 yards on the ground in Tuscaloosa on 34 attempts during a game where Crimson Tide nose tackle Terrence Cody was injured. He’s expected back Saturday.
LSU’s Charles Scott, Keiland Williams and Richard Murphy must gain valuable yards against the Crimson Tide or the Tigers can’t be successful. Scott is averaging 6.7 yards per carry this season, but got only 21 carries in the Tigers’ loss to Georgia and 12 against Florida, both crushing defeats for the Bayou Bengals. In fact, it seems quizzical that offensive coordinator Gary Crowton hasn’t relied more upon Scott and the offensive line to create gaps in opposing defenses this season, particularly with freshman quarterback Jarrett Lee getting the majority of the snaps. Scott is averaging just 16.5 carries of the team’s 38 rushes per game and he is unquestionably LSU’s most effective runner.
LSU’s defense, suffering from injuries and the loss of many valuable seniors from last year’s unit, has caused just eight opponent turnovers this season. In 2007, LSU had 36 takeaways, and were plus-20 in turnover margin. This season, the Tigers are minus-5 through eight games. On the other hand, Alabama has forced 16 turnovers and has committed 12 for a plus-4 turnover margin. Alabama also maintains the advantage of being penalized fewer times this season. The Tide has been penalized 40 times in nine games, while LSU has been whistled for 50 infractions in eight games.
The Pick
This is a must-win game for Alabama despite its two-game cushion in the SEC West. The Crimson Tide has lost five in a row in the LSU series, six straight to cross-state rival Auburn, and two consecutive games to SEC West rival Miss. State. In order to compete for SEC Championships, the Crimson Tide needs to take control of its own division, and for the first time since 1999 they have an opportunity to do so against the three foes that have prevented them winning the West in the recent past. There is no question that LSU fans might have a positive impact on their Tigers, at least until Alabama takes a lead or Lee throws an interception. This has the making of a classic battle, but LSU must win the turnover battle and run the ball effectively in order to win the game.
The chief concern for Alabama is its reliance on its freshmen (see below) and whether or not they will perform as they have in the Tide’s first five SEC games. Remember, the Tide is 3-0 away from home in SEC contests, and that says a lot about coaching, preparation and mental toughness. Saban’s team has gotten off to fast starts and have become “stadium-emptiers” in Atlanta, Athens, Fayetteville and Knoxville. It wouldn’t be a great surprise to see LSU establish the tempo early in this one and force the Crimson Tide to come from behind in the second half for the first time this season. Actually, a come-from-behind win could help Alabama in the long run on its way to the SEC Championship Game in Atlanta.
While LSU has relied upon trickery to win key contests during Les Miles’ tenure in Baton Rouge, Saban has taken a more straightforward approach with few slight-of-hands since arriving in Tuscaloosa. Something tells me that Saban has something up his sleeve Saturday and will try to beat Miles at his own game, with a timely reverse, a run-pass option from a running back or a wide receiver, or even a fake punt. He may not need it if Alabama’s toss sweep is as effective as it has been in recent weeks.
LSU will try to take this game deep into the fourth quarter, but Alabama rates the edge with veteran John Parker Wilson at quarterback and a much stingier defense than the Tigers.
SU Prediction: Alabama 29, LSU 17
Bits and Pieces
• LSU speedster and return specialist Trindon Holliday hasn’t had the same positive influence for LSU’s offense this season after carrying the ball 53 times for 364 yards and two TDs last year (6.9 yards per carry). This season Holliday has just 13 carries for 50 yards, and his only touchdown was a 92-yard punt return against North Texas (1-8).
• Alabama has outscored SEC opponents 160 to 87, while LSU trails its SEC opponents in cumulative scoring, 143 to 165.
• Both offenses have numerous playmakers at the wide receiver position so neither team has a clear-cut advantage.
• LSU veteran placekicker Colt David rates the edge over Alabama’s Leigh Tiffin.
• LSU rates a 3.2 yard advantage in net punting.
• 16 true freshman have played for Alabama this season, with wide receiver Julio Jones, running back Mark Ingram and linebacker Donta Hightower providing the most immediate impact. Only Florida State (22) and Miami (21) have played more true freshman. Arkansas also has played 16 freshmen this season.
• In LSU’s two games against Florida and Georgia, QB Lee threw five interceptions and three of the picks were returned for touchdowns.