The Stage is Set for a Meaningful November
SEC, ACC and C-USA Division Titles Up For Grabs
By Carl Danbury (Posted 10-27-08)
The final weekend of October provided all college football fans with some meaningful clues as to what might occur in the crucial coming weeks of November. Several items have come to the forefront, as we have seen several teams that were thought to be division contenders crumble, while others continue to provide surprises.
The SEC
Both Florida and Georgia served notice Saturday, that they are who we thought they were, the top two contenders for the SEC East as they head to the cocktail party in Jacksonville with identical 4-1 SEC records. Both put on impressive displays as the Gators embarassed Kentucky in the Swamp, while the Bulldogs notched an impressive road win at Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge.
The winner of the Nov. 1 title fight isn't guaranteed a spot in the SEC Championship Game, but will only need to win their final two conference games to ensure an opportunity to head to Atlanta with something more meaningful on the horizon: perhaps an outside shot at the BCS Championship Game?
Georgia, has two conference games remaining after Florida, at Kentucky and at Auburn. Both teams are struggling with injuries and offensive ineptness. Florida will travel to Vanderbilt and then will host South Carolina before wrapping up their season with two non-conference games against The Citadel at home and at surprising Florida State.
Vanderbilt remains the only other SEC East squad with a chance to unseat Florida or Georgia, but the 'Dores would need Florida to beat Georgia, upset Florida the following week, then beat both Kentucky and Tennessee, and hope that Georgia loses one of its final two SEC contests. That scenario seems unlikely.
The winner of the SEC East now appears destined to face No. 2 Alabama, which currently holds a two-game lead in the SEC West standings and can secure the title with a Nov. 8 win at Baton Rouge. If the Bayou Bengals win Saban Bowl II, then 'Bama can still win the division by beating Miss. State and Auburn, or hope for an LSU loss to Ole Miss or at Arkansas. Clearly, the Tigers' home loss to Georgia was costly to their hopes of defending their title in Atlanta.
Alabama traveled to Knoxville and came away with a workmanlike victory over a Tennessee team that has inexplicably lost its way, particularly on offense. Normally, when a visitor shows up for a game on the banks of the Tennessee River, they're greeted with hostility and the feeling UT planned to battle them for 60 minutes. Yet, there weren't many orange-clad backers that believed the Vols could upset Alabama and they were right! The Crimson Tide limited the Vols to 36 net yards rushing on 21 carries and 137 yards passing. Two of the Vols most productive plays came at the end of the first half, when quarterback Nick Stephens completed two tosses for 46 yards. Alas, placekicker Daniel Lincoln misfired from 43 yards to close out the first half, after two Vols penalties, signalling the end to any thoughts of an upset.
Alabama hosts homecoming opponent Arkansas St. Nov. 1 prior to traveling to Baton Rouge. The Tide will host Miss. State and Auburn to close out the season. Although the Tide's non-conference schedule looks weaker now that Clemson has tossed in the towel, coach Nick Saban's team will play for a national championship if it runs the table to finish 13-0 and secures the SEC title along the way. But, before placing a laurel bough upon the Crimson Tide, Saban and his troops must reverse a recent November trend. Alabama is 0-7 in the last two Novembers, and just 3-14 in November since the 2003 season.
The ACC
You get extra credit if you can figure out this conference and what might happen in the standings during the final weeks of the season.
Left for dead by nearly everyone — including fans, alumni and the media — for the second consecutive season, Al Groh's Virginia Cavaliers are back atop the Coastal Division race by virtue of an impressive four-game winning streak and key ACC wins over Maryland, North Carolina and Georgia Tech. Virginia faces Miami, Wake Forest, Clemson and Virginia Tech in November, and of course, few believe they can escape that rigorous schedule unscathed. However, the emergence of quarterback Marc Verica (67 percent completion rate leads the ACC), running back Cedric Peerman (5.7 ypc) and wide-outs Kevin Ogletree, John Phillips and Maurice Covington has solidified the once-anemic Cavaliers offense that managed just three points at Duke.
The Wahoos turned the ball over 14 times in their first four games but only five times during their four-game winning streak. They also forced 10 turnovers in their last four games.
Virginia holds a half-game lead in its division over Georgia Tech and a full-game lead on Miami, UNC, Virginia Tech. Thus, at this point in the season, the Cavaliers control their own destiny and a win over Miami Saturday will further fortify their position atop the division.
Miami, with consecutive ACC wins over Duke and Wake Forest, has re-emerged as a contender because the Canes face Virginia, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech and N.C. State to close out the season. Even though Randy Shannon's squad lost to UNC and FSU earlier, the U still has a legitimate shot at the division title with a win at Virginia. Unfortunately for the Canes, three of its four games are on the road.
Georgia Tech's loss to Virginia hobbled the Yellow Jackets' chances of a division title, but wins against FSU at home Saturday and at UNC Nov. 8 could help get the jalopy back on the road to Tampa. Sweeping those two games, coupled with a win at Miami, Paul Johnson's squad could re-emerge at the top with two UVA losses.
UNC, with losses to both Virginia and Virginia Tech, will need help to win the division, but holds the head-to-head advantage over Miami. The Heels face Georgia Tech, Maryland, N.C. State and Duke in November.
Virginia Tech, with Coastal wins over UNC and Georgia Tech, faces Maryland, Miami, Duke and Virginia in 23 stringent days in November. There is a chance that the intra-state battle against UVA on the final day of the season at Lane Stadium could decide the Coastal champ for the second consecutive season.
Duke, with a win over Virginia, and five ACC games remaining against Wake Forest, N.C. State, Clemson, Virginia Tech and North Carolina, still has a mathematical chance to win the division. A sweep of those five games would provide coach David Cutcliffe a realistic chance of canonization.
The Atlantic Division is a bit more simple, because N.C. State and Clemson are for all intents and purposes out of the division championship picture, with four and three losses respectively. Wake Forest and Boston College, with two ACC losses apiece, remain in the Atlantic hunt despite trailing FSU and Maryland by a full game.
Wake beat FSU but its division hopes took a hit due to two straight road losses at Maryland and Miami. However, the Demon Deacons have Duke, Virginia, N.C. State and BC left on their ACC schedule, with only the N.C. State contest coming away from home.
Boston College faces Clemson at home Saturday, and then travels to FSU and Wake before hosting Maryland in the season finale. A non-conference match-up at home against Notre Dame awaits Nov. 8. BC faces one of the most difficult schedules among the contenders.
Ralph Friedgen's Terrapins seem to play to their opponents' level, as evidenced by their struggles against Middle Tenn. State, Virginia and N.C. State, and their impressive wins over California, Wake Forest and Clemson. The Terps also face a contentious November, with battles against Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Florida State and BC.
FSU faces ACC opponents Georgia Tech, Clemson, Boston College and Maryland before closing out the season at Doak Campbell Stadium against Florida. So much for the scheduling gods being on the Seminoles' side in November. After being manhandled by Wake Forest, the 'Noles have won four straight games, including ACC road wins at Miami and N.C. State, and a home victory over Va. Tech last Saturday.
Bombs Away in C-USA
There must be something in the water in the Southwest, where quarterbacks slurp minerals by the bucket full that allow them to fill the skies with passes fearing neither a sack nor a sore arm. In C-USA play, the West Division features three teams with prolific offenses, Tulsa, Rice and Houston, that could scare even the best defenses from the power conferences.
Currently ranked No. 19, Tulsa averages 55 points per game and decent run-pass balance (357 yards passing and 267 yards rushing per game). Led by quarterback David Johnson, running backs Andre Anderson, Tarrion Adams and Charles Opeseyitan, and wide-outs Brennan Marion, Jeremy Williams and Slick Shelley, the Golden Hurricane have taken to Gus Malzahn’s offense (remember him Razorback fans?) and dashed to an 8-0 record and a lofty ranking.
Not to be outdone, Houston began the C-USA slate with three wins. Averaging 39 points per game, quarterback Case Keenum and the Cougars have averaged 403 passing yards per contest. Nearby Rice University is third in the West standings, and averages 40 points per contest and 308 passing yards per game.
Those passing stats must be of some concern to East Division opponents East Carolina and Marshall, currently tied for first with a 2-1 conference mark. But, before either team can worry about the prolific passers in the West, they have to take care of their own turf. ECU, which started the season with impressive non-conference wins against Virginia Tech and West Virginia, before sputtering with losses to N.C. State, Virginia and C-USA rival Houston, faces Central Florida, Marshall, Southern Miss, UAB and UTEP in the final month of the regular season. Marshall, with a 3-4 overall mark and a three-game losing streak, hosts Houston Tues. night, travels to ECU Nov. 8, before playing UCF, Rice and Tulsa.
East Carolina seems to have an inside track to get to the C-USA title game again, almost assuredly if it beats UCF and Marshall to open November.
Sun Belt Update
In Sun Belt Conference play, Troy (4-0) holds a half-game advantage over UL-Lafayette (3-0), a team it will host at Movie Gallery Stadium Nov. 22. The Ragin’ Cajuns pulled off a comeback win at home against Arkansas State, 28-23, behind Tyrell Fenroy, the nation’s active career leading rusher. Fenroy had his 21st career 100-yard game and scored the go-ahead touchdown (the 41st of his career).
Arkansas State (2-1) and Florida International (2-1) are still alive in the race too.