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BCS Championship Game Preview & Prediction
Oklahoma (12-1) vs. Florida (12-1)

Two Titles for Tebow?
Oklahoma Provides Worthy Challenge in BCS Championship Game
By Carl Danbury (Posted 12-31-08)


He might be one of the few to tell you that his team’s success is not all about him, but any fan or media observer worth his/her salt begins any discussion about the Florida Gators with Tim Tebow. Sure, Urban Meyer (43-9 record) has been a Gainesville Godsend, offensive coordinator Dan Mullen will be missed and Percy Harvin, Brandon Spikes, Chris Rainey, Jeff Demps and Phil Trautwein are key components in the Gators’ growl toward its second BCS title in three years (and the SEC’s fourth in five years), but make no mistake — this is Tim Tebow’s team.

Much has been made of Tebow’s mid-season speech after the Gators loss to Ole Miss. Much has been made about his impeccable Christian missionary upbringing and how well he treats teammates, fans, children, etc. There’s little question that he is a rare commodity, both on and off the field, but before we turn this into another Tebow Gushfest, lets concentrate on what Tebow means to Florida’s offense.

The Gators never scored fewer than 26 points in any game this season and averaged 45.2 points per game. Not including hand-offs, Tebow ran or threw the ball 422 times in 13 games, or 32.46 times per game. That means the ball is in Tebow’s hands for 52.75 percent of all Gators’ plays. He accounted for 3,079 total yards, or 7.29 yards per touch. He completed 65 percent of his passes, had 28 touchdown passes and threw just two interceptions in 268 attempts this season.

As a runner, Tebow is more like a traditional fullback, often trying to soften an opponent’s interior line between the tackles. Consider his longest run of the 2008 season was for 26 yards, and his career long is just 29 yards. Still, Tebow averaged 12 carries per game this season for an average of 43.4 yards per game. During his three seasons in Gainesville, Tebow averaged 48 rushing yards per game and 154 passing yards per game. He has thrown or carried the ball 1,104 times in 40 games and has accumulated 43 rushing touchdowns and 65 passing touchdowns. Tebow averages one TD pass for every 10 passes thrown and one interception for every 72 passes thrown.

The confounding thing about all of those stats is that every team knows that the Gators’ attack is centered upon Tebow, and no team has slowed them down.

Those numbers pale in comparison to those posted by Heisman Trophy winner Sam Bradford, who is no shrinking violet when it comes to touches either. Bradford threw 442 passes this season connecting upon 68.3 percent while amassing 4,464 yards, 48 touchdowns and only six interceptions. The OU sophomore ran 40 times and was sacked 11 times.

The Sooners averaged a mind-boggling 54 points per game overall and 55.8 points per game in nine Big 12 games. Despite the prolific offensive output, OU turned the ball over just nine times all season.

DeMarco Murray, the Sooners’ second leading rusher, will miss the title game due to surgery on a ruptured hamstring, but Oklahoma has numerous weapons at Bradford’s disposal, including leading rusher Chris Brown and back-up Mossis Madu. The Sooners’ receiving corps is loaded with Juaquin Iglesias (69 catches for 1,110 yards), tight end Jermaine Gresham (58 catches for 888 yards), Ryan Broyles (42 catches for 661 yards) and Manuel Johnson (38 catches for 685 yards).

Oklahoma converted 52 percent of the time this season on third down and scored 69 touchdowns in 80 attempts in the red zone.

It is important to try to put OU’s explosive offense in perspective; either the Big 12’s offenses are far superior to all others in the Bowl Championship Subdivision, or the defensive scheme most often utilized in Big 12 play is the Matador.

Leading up to the championship game, it might be wise to take a good look at how Big 12 defenses fare against other teams in bowl games to decide. Missouri allowed 23 points to Northwestern in the Alamo Bowl and Oklahoma State gave up 41 points to Oregon in the Holiday Bowl. No fewer than 10 of the Big 12 teams ranked 67th or lower in scoring defense during the regular season. Only Texas (No. 20) and OU (No. 57) give up fewer than 26 points per game, and Iowa St., Kansas St. and Texas A&M gave up more than 35 points per game. Conversely, five SEC teams including Florida, are ranked in the top 15 in scoring defense and each allowed fewer than 18 points per game. Yet, some observers have pointed out that some SEC squads have poor quarterback play and couldn’t score on Spring St. in Atlanta on Saturday night.

The contrasting styles of play in the teams’ respective conferences make determining a winner extremely cumbersome. The SEC had just two teams whose quarterback attempted 48 or more passes in a game this season, and only 10 times did a quarterback throw for more than 300 yards in a game. Tebow did it once against Ole Miss.

On the other hand, the Big 12’s Bradford had 11 300-yard plus performances himself; Texas Tech’s Graham Harrell had 10, and Chase Daniel of Missouri (8), Kansas’ Todd Reesing (7), Texas’ Colt McCoy (5), Joe Ganz of Nebraska (5) and Iowa State’s Austen Arnaud (3) also had several games over the coveted mark.

As Florida proved against Alabama in the SEC Championship Game, they possess a rare combination of strength and speed on defense. The Gators limited Alabama’s offense to just 58 plays, six fewer than their season average. That would be quite a task if Florida was able to do the same to Oklahoma, a team that averages an NCAA-best 79 plays per game.

Jan. 8 could be a very special night for college football fans, much like the Texas-USC match-up in the Rose Bowl after the 2005 season. We expect a similar result with each team scoring a minimum of five touchdowns. Oklahoma is 0-3 in bowl games after winning the Big 12 Championship, and participants (winners and losers) in the 16 SEC title games since 1992 boast a 20-12 record in subsequent bowl games.

Oklahoma has the current Heisman Trophy winner, but there’s a reason Tebow got more first-place votes and should have won the trophy again this season. There is a trophy of another kind awaiting him, his teammates and Urban Meyer in Miami!

Florida 40, Oklahoma 38

 

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